2024 U.S. Presidential Election: Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris Swing State Odds

The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election is rapidly drawing near. Following decisions by Joe Biden and Robert Kennedy Jr. to drop out of the race, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are deadlocked in the swing state polls. The following seven swing states account for 93 electoral votes. 270 votes are needed to clinch the Election.

Presidential Swing State Election Odds

Pennsylvania Election Odds

Pennsylvania is considered by most to be the tipping point of the 2024 U.S. Election. The winner of this state is likely to win the Electoral College. In 2020, Joe Biden won Pennsylvania by just over 1%. Polling currently shows a dead tie between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Current odds give Harris a 54.5% chance of winning PA.

Michigan Election Odds

Michigan swung heavily in Kamala Harris’ favor following Joe Biden’s decision to drop out. Both candidates are unpopular in Michigan, a state that will likely lead the nation in 3rd-party and uncommitted votes per capita. Joe Biden won the state by just under 3% in 2020. Currently, Kamala Harris has a 64.3% chance of taking Michigan.

Wisconsin Election Odds

Rounding out the rust belt is Wisconsin, which holds similar odds to Michigan. Recent polls in Wisconsin favor Donald Trump, who may be making a comeback after losing ground when Joe Biden dropped out. Biden won Wisconsin by just 0.6% in 2020. Even so, the odds currently give Kamala Harris a 64.3% chance of winning WI.

Nevada Election Odds

Sun belt swing states were trending as huge losses for Joe Biden but are back in play for Harris. Gains made among minority voters will greatly aid her chances. Of the sun belt, Nevada is the most likely to go to Harris. Joe Biden won Nevada by about 2.5% in 2020, and Kamala Harris is currently given a 56.5% chance to win it.

Arizona Election Odds

Arizona flipped blue in 2020, as Joe Biden won the state by just 0.3%. Currently, that margin of victory is not expected to hold up. While Kamala Harris has improved greatly on Biden’s 2024 polling, she still trails behind his numbers in the 2020 Election. The odds favor Donald Trump here, giving him a 60% chance of winning AZ.

Georgia Election Odds

Georgia was one of the biggest surprises in 2020. Aided by the Atlanta metro area, Joe Biden managed to win the state by 0.23%. It was the first time a Democrat won Georgia since Clinton in 1992. Biden won by a razor-thin margin, though, a far cry from the 5% margin Trump held in 2016. Trump has a 58.3% chance to win GA.

North Carolina Election Odds

Of the seven swing states, North Carolina is the only one that was won by Donald Trump in 2020. Republicans have won the state each election since 2008, when Barack Obama won by 0.32%. The margin of victory halved for Trump from 2016 to 2020, but he is still favored to win North Carolina. The odds give him a 58.3% chance.