UFC Mexico Picks for Moreno vs. Erceg and Other Fights on March 29

If you’re looking for UFC Mexico picks, we have some for you. In this post, we’ll preview all the biggest matchups scheduled for March 29 in Mexico City, as well as share our top predictions for each bout on the fight card.

We’ll also analyze UFC Mexico odds and tell you which bets come with plenty of betting value in our eyes. So, let’s start with the main event – Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg.

Moreno vs. Erceg – A Real War in Mexico City

Brandon Moreno enters UFC Mexico City as the -185 favorite. The former two-time flyweight champ (22-8-2) just snapped a two-fight skid with a win over Amir Albazi.

His last two losses – split decisions to Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval – were disappointing, but he didn’t embarrass himself.

Moreno has no losses inside the distance but has 16 finishes in his record. Exactly 50% of his wins via submission, which shows how good he is when it comes to grappling. He also has a background in Muay Thai, which makes him a very well-rounded fighter.

Steve Erceg too is very well-rounded, but the question is whether he’s at the same level as Moreno. Oddsmakers don’t think so. They see him as the underdog but this guy definitely has the tools to compete.

He went 12-1 before a title shot against Pantoja, holding his own in a decision loss. However, a first-round TKO against Kai Kara-France hurt his momentum.

Raul Rosas Jr’s Rise to Stardom Continues

Raul Rosas Jr. (10-1) is only 20 but already a UFC star. His only loss came by decision in 2023, but he rebounded with three straight wins, earning Performance of the Night bonuses for a TKO over Terrence Mitchell and a submission against Ricky Turcios.

His elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu and strong takedown game (4+ TDs per fight) make him a serious threat. The only thing he lacks is experience, which is something Vince Morales has in abundance.

Morales is 16-9 overall but is 0-2 since rejoining the UFC, with a 3-5 record in his first stint. He’s well-rounded with solid takedown defense but struggles against leg kicks and striking pressure – areas Rosas Jr. will likely try to exploit.

The UFC wants to build Rosas Jr. into a star, giving him winnable matchups like this. Morales will put up a fight, but he doesn’t have the tools to stop Rosas Jr.’s momentum.

UFC Mexico Picks for All Remaining Fights

• Manuel Torres vs. Drew Dober – Manuel Torres
• Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer – Joe Pyfer
• David Martinez vs. Saimon Oliveira – David Martinez
• Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas – Ronaldo Rodriguez
• Edgar Chairez vs. C.J. Vergara – Edgar Chairez
• Jose Daniel Medina vs. Ateba Gautier – Ateba Gautier
• Christian Rodriguez vs. Melquizael Costa – Christian Rodriguez
• Loopy Godinez vs. Julia Polastri – Loopy Godinez
• Rafa Garcia vs. Vinc Pichel – Rafa Garcia

There you have it, our top UFC Mexico picks. As you can see, we’re backing favorites in all fights. The two safest bets in our eyes are Moreno and Rosas Jr., which is why we analyzed those fights in detail.

When it comes to other bouts, Joe Pyfer looks like a very safe bet, but the odds aren’t too great. A bet with more value is Lupita Godinez, who we think will steamroll her opponent.