MLB 2025: New York Yankees Over/Under For Wins

• The New York Yankees open their 2025 MLB season in Milwaukee on March 27
• They are the defending American League champs
• New York has suffered serious injuries and a major blow to its aspirations
• They have finished above .500 for 32 straight years and surpassed their 2025 win total in every full season but one since 2017

Can the Yankees Overcome Their Injuries?

Despite their status as the defending American League champs, the Yankees are in flux. They lost Juan Soto as a free agent to the crosstown Mets.

Ace Gerrit Cole is out for the season after Tommy John surgery. Slugger Giancarlo Stanton has injuries to both elbows and his status is in doubt, perhaps for all of 2025. Veteran bat D.J. LeMahieu will start the season on the injured list. Rookie of the Year pitcher Luis Gil is out with a lat strain for at least two months.

Spreading Around the Soto Money

The Yankees spread around the money they had earmarked for Soto by signing lefty starter Max Fried and first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. They traded for outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger and closer Devin Williams.

The season will likely hinge on how super-prospect Jasson Dominguez plays in his first full season after Tommy John surgery and if the remaining starting pitchers can pick up the slack for Gil and Cole. Beyond Fried, they are rife with question marks in that rotation. It’s not long ago that they were desperate to find a taker for Marcus Stroman’s contract. Now they are relying on him.

Trust the Bullpen

The one area where general manager Brian Cashman is at his best is building a bullpen. Their offense should be good enough and losing Stanton is not as big an issue as it’s perceived since he’s often hurt anyway and isn’t particularly good anymore.

Their run of 32 consecutive seasons finishing above .500 should not be discounted even if they haven’t won a World Series since 2009. They’ve won fewer than the projected total of 88.5 once since 2017.

New York Will Surpass 88.5 Wins

The Yankees are not as much of a sure thing as they’ve been in the past, but they’re still good. In a watered-down AL East with their competitors the Red Sox, Orioles, Rays, and Blue Jays rife with questions, and with their remaining star players, they have enough firepower to score plenty of runs. The bullpen will cover for the limited starting rotation and they will win at least 89 games.