Florida Derby Picks — Betting Preview and Predictions (Mar 29)

Notable action on the Road to the Kentucky Derby is set for this weekend, as the G1 Florida Derby headlines the card at Gulfstream Park.

All eyes will be on Sovereignty, who already ranks among the leading contenders for the opening leg of the Triple Crown at Churchill Downs.

Odds

Florida Derby Recent Winners

Florida Derby: Event Information

Event Preview

You only need to examine the recent winners of this race to understand that high-quality horses tend to win the Florida Derby. In fact, the prep race has produced 21 winners of Triple Crown winners, with 15 landing success in the Kentucky Derby.

All eyes will be on Sovereignty for trainer William Mott on Saturday. The three-year-old has won twice from four career starts, and he was last seen posting an Equibase speed figure of 98 when winning the G2 Fountain Of Youth Stakes. However, it would be a slight concern that regular rider Junior Alvardo is out injured.

Tappan Street has little to find on the current market leader, and he could go under the radar. The Brad Cox-trained runner was second in the Holy Bull Stakes, and fourth in the Fountain of Youth. Luis Saez won this race in 2019 with Maximum Security, and it would be unwise to rule him out from repeating that feat.

Todd Pletcher typically sends a good one to the Florida Derby, meaning that Disruptor should be respected. The three-year-old has won once from two career starts, with his only success posted an Equibase speed figure of 99. This represents a massive step up in class, but connections should be respected.

Neoequos is the runner from the Saffie Joseph stable this weekend, with the trainer previously winning the Florida Derby with White Abarrio. The three-year-old is more experienced than most, having won twice from six starts. He was third in the Fountain of Youth on his latest start.

Florida Derby Picks

This is a fascinating renewal of the Florida Derby, and there should be plenty of Kentucky Derby clues on offer. At the prices, Madaket Road for Bob Baffert could be the interesting play.

He was third behind two-year-old champion Citizen Bull in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, before taking an excellent second behind Coal Battle in the Rebel Stakes.

The blinkers are off this weekend, and his form has more substance to it than most runners this weekend.