MLB 2025: Tampa Bay Rays Over/Under For Wins

• The Tampa Bay Rays open their season on March 28, hosting the Colorado Rockies
• Tampa Bay was 80-82 in 2024, a disappointing season considering they had won 99 in 2023 and made the postseason in the five prior seasons
• The Rays’ home park of Tropicana Field had its roof ripped off in a hurricane, so they will play their home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field, the Yankees‘ spring training home
• Their plans for a new ballpark are in flux, and MLB is reportedly trying to get Stuart Sternberg to sell the team

The Rays’ Circumstances Are Tougher Than Usual

Tampa Bay has always needed to be simultaneously creative and aggressive. They trade players away when they can no longer afford them, find other teams’ castoffs and make use of them, and give their young players a legitimate chance to play and produce.

Now, however, with their ballpark situation coming to a head, ownership and the league at odds, and few additions in the offseason, this could be too much for even the Rays to overcome.

Matters grew worse when ace Shane McClanahan felt a “grab” in his arm and was diagnosed with a nerve irritation in his triceps. The lefty was recovering from Tommy John surgery and had been slated to start on Opening Day. There is no timetable for his return.

Tampa Dumped Many Stalwarts at Midseason 2024

Seeing where their 2024 season was headed, Tampa’s President of Baseball Operations Erik Neander traded away Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Jason Adam, Isaac Paredes, and Randy Arozarena.

They have done little over the winter of 2024-25 apart from signing veteran catcher Danny Jansen and infielder Ha-Seong Kim. Christopher Morel, acquired in the Paredes trade, needs to be a key contributor in 2025.

Offensively, they are limited in the power department but have a surplus of speed with Jose Caballero, Josh Lowe, Kim, and Richie Palacios.

Caballero only batted .227, but stole 44 bases. Morel had an awful year for the Cubs and Rays but has been an exciting power threat in the past, with 26 homers and an .821 OPS in 2023.

The Rays’ Sum-of-the-Parts Approach Will Fall Below 81.5 Wins

McClanahan is one of baseball’s best pitchers, but even if he were healthy, the Rays would have trouble repeating their past success on a limited budget.

The combination of the ballpark issues, the off-field disputes, their lack of prominent acquisitions, the notable departures, and questions about their future will combine to keep them below 81.5 wins.