MLB 2025: Toronto Blue Jays Over/Under For Wins

• The Toronto Blue Jays open the 2025 season by hosting the Baltimore Orioles on March 27
• Expected to contend in 2024, they fell to 74-88 and finished in last place in the AL East
• They made some major changes to the roster in the offseason, adding 40-home run hitter Anthony Santander and future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer
• If the oddsmakers are correct about the Blue Jays, the entire roster and front office could be on thin ice

The Blue Jays’ Future Hinges on a Solid 2025 Season

After their 89-73 season in 2023, much was expected from the Blue Jays in 2024. But an injury-plagued year from star shortstop Bo Bichette, losing pitcher Alek Manoah, a shaky back of the starting rotation, and a bad bullpen doomed them.

This is the tenth year as team president for Mark Shapiro and time may be running out for him and his operation. They’ve spent a ton of money, and Shapiro pushed out former GM Alex Anthopoulos, who has become one of the most well-regarded GMs in baseball with the Braves.

Toronto Has Many New Faces

The Blue Jays will have a new closer (Jeff Hoffman), starting pitcher (Max Scherzer), second baseman (Andrés Giménez), center fielder (Myles Straw), and right fielder (Anthony Santander).

Santander had a career high in home runs in 2024 with 44, and he won the Silver Slugger. The Jays’ up-the-middle defense will be improved with Giménez and Straw.

Is the bullpen appreciably better with Hoffman replacing Jordan Romano and Chad Green as closer? Hoffman racks up the strikeouts, but he has never been a full-time closer before.

Scherzer had a tremendous spring training with a 1.38 ERA in 4 starts, amassing 18 strikeouts in 13 innings with only 1 walk. Still, his body has been betraying him with a variety of injuries across his entire anatomy. He has been dealing with a thumb injury this spring.

Things Could Blow Up Quickly

With both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bichette set to be free agents after the season and the front office increasingly desperate to have a good year and save their jobs, manager John Schneider could be in trouble early. Shapiro has a quick trigger with his managers in the best of times. Knowing how important this season is could lead to Don Mattingly or DeMarlo Hale taking over.

Both Guerrero and Bichette will be motivated to have big years to maximize their free agent contracts. If the season goes sideways and neither player shows a willingness to sign an extension, could they be on the trade block?

The team needs to get off to a good start.

The Blue Jays Are Being Underestimated

While the Blue Jays have undoubtedly been disappointing, they are being underestimated for 2025. The win total of 78.5 is extremely low, especially in a watered-down AL East with the Yankees dealing with massive injuries, the Rays essentially homeless, and the Orioles refusing to spend. The only team that improved substantially was the Red Sox.

Since Toronto had an “everything that could go wrong” 2024 and still got within 5 games of getting beyond 78.5 wins, they should surpass it this year. If their veterans put up big years, they are a playoff team.