MLB 2025: Minnesota Twins Over/Under For Wins

• The Minnesota Twins were 82-80 in 2024, collapsing in September and missing the playoffs
• They made limited changes to their roster for 2025 and did not spend much money
• The team is for sale but could be pulled from the market if the Pohlads do not get an offer they feel is acceptable
• MLB oddsmakers have them with the highest win total in the AL Central at over/under 84.5

Minnesota Stood Mostly Pat After a Disastrous Finish in 2024

By the end of August 2024, the Twins were 73-62 and had the sixth-best record in the American League. They were in a relatively strong position to make the postseason. However, they completely collapsed in September, losing 18 of 27 games to finish at 82-80 and miss the playoffs.

To make matters worse, they looked indifferent, lacked hustle, and seemed to accept, if not outright invite, their fate.

Diving even deeper, their 12-1 record against the historically dreadful White Sox and 6-1 record against the Athletics makes them look less than mediocre. The Twins had great expectations coming into the season, and it was a catastrophic failure.

General Manager Thad Levine departed “to pursue new challenges and opportunities, both inside and outside of baseball.”

Believe that if you want.

They signed veterans Ty France and Harrison Bader to “boost” the offense.

France had a .670 OPS for the Reds and Mariners, hitting 13 home runs in 2024. He ripped the cover off the ball in spring training, batting .467 with 2 homers in 48 plate appearances.

Bader will play left field but can still cover center field if (when) Byron Buxton gets injured, as he inevitably does.

These are not impact signings.

If Things Go Right, the Twins Will Contend

The starting rotation is the same as it was in 2024 with Pablo López, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, and Simeon Woods Richardson. Their bullpen could be one of baseball’s best. Jhoan Durán throws a fastball that has reached 104 MPH, Griffin Jax is a solid set-up man, and the rest of the pen is deep.

Offensively, they can be productive, contingent on the health of Buxton and third baseman Royce Lewis. Already, Lewis will start the season on the injured list with a hamstring problem. Carlos Correa was limited to 86 games in 2024 due to right plantar fasciitis. When he played, he was productive with a .310/.388/.517 slash line, 14 home runs, and 54 RBI. His defensive range is declining, and it should not be forgotten that both the Giants and Mets backed out on free agent agreements with him because of concerns about his ankle.

There are a lot of ifs and buts here.

Twins Have Too Many Questions On and Off the Field

It is a lingering question as to whether President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey and his entire staff, along with manager Rocco Baldelli, would have been shoved out the door along with Levine and also decided to “pursue new challenges and opportunities, both inside and outside of baseball” if the team wasn’t up for sale. The team has been a media darling for eight years since Falvey was hired away from Cleveland, and they have won nothing.

It is delusional to expect them to stay healthy, to get big seasons from their bargain pickups, and for everything to go right when they’ve been consistent in everything going wrong.

They will win fewer than 84.5 games.