Kentucky Derby 2025 Odds, Trends, and History

One of the most popular betting events of the year is fast approaching, as the opening leg of the Triple Crown in the U.S. will take place on the first Saturday in May.

For over 140 years, the Kentucky Derby has captured the imagination in the U.S., with the ‘most exciting two minutes in sports’ seeing some of the most iconic images in racing.

Legendary equine stars such as Secretariat, Barbaro, and Seattle Slew have all claimed success at Churchill Downs. But, who could join the esteemed roll of honor in 2025?

Kentucky Derby 2025 Odds

How Is The Field Determined?

The field for the Kentucky Derby is determined by the standings on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Prep races offer qualifying points, with the big championship races offering 100 points, which automatically secures a place in the race at Churchill Downs.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby gets underway in the year before the race, and the featured two-year-old prep comes in the form of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

As well as winners, horses that finish second, third, fourth, and fifth also earn qualifying places. The top 20 horses in the overall standings will secure their place in the gates at Churchill Downs.

Road to the Kentucky Derby Results

Notable Two-Year-Old Prep Events

Championship Series Events

Can International Runners Enter?

There is a growing sense that a non-North American-trained horse will win the Derby in the coming years, with Japan throwing some talented runners into the mix.

Forever Young was desperately unlucky in the race 12 months ago, finishing third in the closest Derby in over 50 years. Once again, there will be a strong Japanese squad at Churchill Downs.

Seven races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby are staged in Europe or Asia, with the standout being the UAE Derby, which is run on the Dubai World Cup undercard. Meanwhile, there is a Japanese Road to the Kentucky Derby. You can find the winners of the four prep races below:

Kentucky Derby Trends

Betting on the Kentucky Derby is exceptionally popular, and is also has the power to attract mainstream gamblers. Some of the key trends to consider when finding your selection for the race can be found below:

• All ten of the previous winners of the race have won over at least 1 1/16 miles.
• Fast finishers often prevail; 19 of the last 26 Derby winners have completed the final three-eighths of the race in :38 seconds or less.
• Seven of the last 12 winners have been trained in California. Five of the seven have competed in the Santa Anita Derby.
• The Florida Derby has produced six Derby winners since 2006.
• Avoid the Wood Memorial and Blue Grass Stakes. Neither have produced a Derby winner since 2007. The former hasn’t produced a winner since 2000.
• Post one hasn’t produced a winner since 1986, while post positions 13 and wider have the best recent record.
• Eight of the last 12 winners have arrived at Churchill Downs with undefeated records. Nine of the last 13 have arrived after winning on their latest start.

Recent Kentucky Derby Winners

Early Kentucky Derby 2025 Pick

A wide-open Kentucky Derby is taking shape, and there is yet to be a horse that has seized their chance in the prep races.

Therefore, the horse with the fewest questions to answer could be the Japanese raider Luxor Cafe. The three-year-old by American Pharoah has been sensational on track, and has won two major Japanese preps.

The latest of those came in the Fukuryu Stakes, sprinting well clear of the field in dominant fashion to win by a five-length margin.

We will take a deeper look at the Kentucky Derby contenders closer to the time of the race, and provide our big-race pick.