MLB 2025: Texas Rangers Over/Under For Wins

• The Texas Rangers followed up on their 2023 World Series win by falling back to 78-84 in 2024
• Rather than making aggressive moves to improve, the Rangers are hoping their veterans, like Jacob deGrom, come back strong and their young players advance
• Oddsmakers have the Rangers at over/under 86.5 wins for 2025

Texas Dealt With a Post-World Series Hangover

The Rangers went all in to chase the 2023 World Series by trading for Max Scherzer, Aroldis Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, and Austin Hedges. These players, added to Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, and Nate Eovaldi, helped Texas and manager Bruce Bochy to win a championship.

But there is always a cost that goes beyond the players surrendered in those trades. There can be a physical and emotional hangover, particularly for a veteran MLB team. That’s what happened and doomed the 2024 Rangers.

The Rangers Need Health and Development for 2025

For 2025, they added puzzle pieces Joc Pederson and Kyle Higashioka. Their hopes hinge on deGrom staying healthy, Garcia rebounding from a subpar 2024, Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker developing, and their reconstituted bullpen performing well.

The problem with this strategy is that it leaves little margin for error, particularly with a questionable bullpen. Leiter and Rocker were teammates at Vanderbilt, and both were high first-round picks. Leiter has struggled so far. As a rookie, he posted an 8.83 ERA in 9 big league appearances with a ghastly -1.6 bWAR. Rocker has had problems with his command and control.

DeGrom might be the biggest wild card. He missed most of the 2024 season after Tommy John surgery. Even without that injury, he has not been consistently healthy for five years. Worryingly, the injuries have been to his entire body, not just his arm. Now, he’s about to turn 37. Can they count on him?

Offensively, they should be productive. They will hit a lot of home runs. But that might not be enough.

The Rangers Will Fall Below 86.5 Wins

There are too many question marks for the Rangers to get to 90+ wins. They certainly can contend in the watered-down AL West with the Astros not as strong as they were, the Angels and Athletics bad, and the Mariners in the mix for the division title.

Will that be enough to get to 87 wins?

No. It will not.