MLB 2025: Philadelphia Phillies Over/Under For Wins

• Oddsmakers have the Philadelphia Phillies at over/under 92.5 wins for 2025
• The Phillies were 95-67 in 2024, winning the NL East before losing to the Mets in the NLDS
• Philly was not as aggressive as they usually are in making improvements during the offseason
• Their foundation is getting older, and their championship window may be closing

Philly Made Moderate Moves Over the Winter

Fans might have grown accustomed to President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski’s big spending and aggressive pursuit of stars. But with a payroll over $280 million and two players, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper, with contracts worth north of $300 million, Philly largely stayed out of the MLB free agent fray after the 2024 season. They did not get involved in the Juan Soto bidding.

Dombrowski boosted the starting rotation by trading for Jesus Luzardo. He signed veteran power bat Max Kepler. And they signed reliever Jordan Romano, who is coming off an injury-plagued season for the Blue Jays.

Age is a Concern for 2025

Harper, Turner, Kepler, Kyle Schwarber, and Aaron Nola are 32. J.T. Realmuto is 34. Nick Castellanos is 33. Romano is 32. Ace Zack Wheeler is 35.

Wheeler was second in the National League Cy Young Award voting and is still at the top of his game. Christopher Sanchez was 10th; Nola was 11th. Harper was sixth in the MVP voting with 30 homers and an OPS just under .900.

In short, they’re older and still playing well. They’re not yet old. But older. At a certain point, the decline will begin, and for teams with this many players in that age range, it can snowball with injuries and diminished performance.

This is a hallmark of Dombrowski’s teams and has happened nearly everywhere he’s been, except for his time running the Marlins when he was ordered to gut the place after winning the 1997 World Series. Rest assured, the same thing that happened with the Tigers and Red Sox will eventually happen to the Phillies.

The only question is when.

They have some young pieces: Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh, Luzardo, and Sanchez. Still, that’s a starting point for a reboot, not the next generation to replace a future Hall of Famer and two-time NL MVP like Harper.

The Weaker Teams in the Division Will Help Philly Surpass 92.5 Wins

Even if there are some veteran injuries or extended slumps, the Phillies are still deep enough to beat on the bad teams in the division, the Nationals and Marlins. Dombrowski will be looking for dramatic improvements at the trade deadline.

That should be good enough to get them beyond 92.5 wins.