MLB 2025: Chicago Cubs Over/Under For Wins

• MLB oddsmakers have the 2025 Cubs over/under wins at 89.5
• They were a disappointing 83-79 in 2024, missing the playoffs for the fourth straight year
• For 2025, they acquired star right fielder Kyle Tucker from the Astros as their marquee addition
• They also added reliever Ryan Pressly and veteran bat Justin Turner

The Cubs Added an MVP Candidate in Tucker

Kyle Tucker is one of the best players in baseball. He was a three-time All-Star for the Astros, finished 5th in the MVP voting in 2023, and won a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove. Even more important for the Cubs is that he is supremely motivated to stay healthy and post a career year in 2025 with his pending free agency. The contract Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed with the Blue Jays provides a template for what Tucker will likely demand.

The rest of the Cubs’ offense is productive with Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, Michael Busch, and Turner.

On the mound, they have questions. Shota Imanaga was an unheralded star in 2024, going 15-3 in 29 starts. He struck out 174 in 173.1 innings and issued only 28 walks. He finished 5th in the Cy Young Award voting, was an All-Star, and was 4th in the Rookie of the Year balloting. They have lingering questions with injury-prone ace Justin Steele, the journeyman Matthew Boyd, and the up-and-down Jameson Taillon.

The Media Loves the Cubs

Just as Cubs fans were forever positive no matter how downtrodden their team was in their interminable World Series drought, the media also has a strange love affair with North Siders. This has long been the case, well before they broke the curse by winning the 2016 World Series.

The team was poorly run in the latter days of Theo Epstein’s reign, and the questionable decisions continued into Jed Hoyer’s time as head of baseball ops.

Does this play into the perception that they are a near-90-win team? They have a good manager in Craig Counsell. Is he worth $8 million a year? It’s highly debatable. The questionable nature of that contract was further exacerbated by the Brewers winning the NL Central in their first year after Counsell left with the Cubs finishing 10 games behind them despite a roster that cost $100 million more.

They are fortunate in the NL Central’s mediocrity. With that as a major factor, they should be at or near the top of the division at season’s end. But will that equate to 90 wins?

Cubs Over/Under Wins Will Fall Below 89.5

The Cubs could and probably should make the playoffs in 2025. But winning more than 89.5 games? With some aggressive moves at the deadline, maybe. As currently constructed? No.