Cubs vs Dodgers Pick: Sasaki Tries To Build on Solid Last Start (Apr 12)

• Our Cubs vs Dodgers pick looks at Chicago starting Ben Brown against LA’s Roki Sasaki in Los Angeles
• The teams met in the Tokyo Series in March, with LA winning both games
• LA has slowed down slightly after a scorching start, and Chicago has played well back stateside after their two losses in Japan
• Sasaki was awful in his first two starts but rebounded in his last outing against the Phillies

Cubs’ Brown Has Struggled in the Early Seas

Ben Brown is a rarity in that he was a 33rd-round draft pick who made it to MLB. In fact, he will be the last such draft pick to make it to the Show, simply because the league cut the number of rounds to 20.

Despite that impressive achievement, his status is shaky. He has pitched poorly in his three starts this season. In 11.2 innings, he’s given up 10 earned runs, walked 9, and struck out 15. His ERA is 7.71. He pitched in relief during the Tokyo Series and gave up 2 earned runs in 2.2 innings, striking out 5. He showed potential in 2024.

Chicago has climbed into first place in the mediocre NL Central. Brown has limited experience against the Dodgers. Shohei Ohtani is 1 for 2. Will Smith is 1 for 1. Miguel Rojas is 1 for 2. Tommy Edman is 1 for 2. He has not surrendered any extra base hits against them in his brief time on the mound vs LA.

Sasaki’s Wildness is a Problem

For Japanese pitchers, there is an inevitable transition period to adapt to the North American game. The official MLB ball is bigger, and starting pitchers in Japan generally pitch once a week. If any team knows how to acclimate their Japanese imports, it’s the Dodgers from their experience with Hideo Nomo and Hiroki Kuroda, among others.

Still, Sasaki has been shaky. His wildness is concerning. The pressure on him is substantial, even pitching for a team that will coccoon him as much as possible. In his Tokyo Series start against the Cubs, he gave up only 1 run, but walked 5 in 3 innings.

The only Cub to get a hit against him was Jon Berti. But it’s difficult to determine whether the lack of offense was due to Sasaki’s stuff or because they were reluctant to swing, waiting for him to issue walks.

LA has gotten off to a slow start at the plate, though they are hitting home runs as they always do. Of course, Ohtani has been raking. So have Mookie Betts and Will Smith. Teoscar Hernandez is leading the NL in RBIs.

Cubs vs Dodgers Pick: These Teams Will Score More Than 8.5 Runs

Sasaki’s wildness and Brown’s struggles make this a high-scoring affair. Both teams have power and will use it. They will combine to score more than 8.5 runs.