Cubs vs Padres Pick: Pivetta and Boyd Battle With Matching ERAs (Apr 16)

• In our Cubs vs Padres pick, we analyze how two pitchers, Nick Pivetta and Matthew Boyd, with identical 1.59 ERAs, will fare
• Both Chicago and San Diego are in first place in their respective divisions; the Padres’ road is tougher in the NL West
• The Padres’ offense is led by Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr.
• Kyle Tucker is heading for free agency, having an MVP-caliber start to the 2025 season

Cubs’ Boyd Is an Early-Season Revelation

Veteran lefty Matthew Boyd is 34 and, after spending seven years with the Tigers, has bounced around MLB to the Mariners, back to the Tigers, to the Guardians, and now the Cubs. He has never been anything more than a mid-to-back-end rotation piece.

In 2025, however, he has been borderline brilliant. In 17 innings over 3 starts, he has given up 3 runs on 13 hits, striking out 17, and allowing only 1 home run. Judging by his career, it’s unwise to expect him to maintain this performance.

Several Padres have extensive experience against Boyd. Xander Bogaerts is 3 for 14 with a home run. Oscar Gonzalez is 1 for 2 with a home run. Manny Machado is 4 for 10 with 2 doubles.

Kyle Tucker has been on fire as he tries to get his own $500+ million contract after Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s deal with the Blue Jays. Tucker has an OPS over 1.000 and leads the majors in doubles and walks.

Pivetta Has Also Been Very Good So Far

Nick Pivetta has made 3 starts this season. In two, he pitched 7 innings each and gave up no runs and a total of 4 hits. In his last start against the Rockies, he struck out 10. In his second start (against the Cubs), he surrendered 6 hits and 3 runs in 3 innings. Overall, he has a 1.59 ERA.

Against Pivetta, Dansby Swanson is 10 for 32 with 2 home runs. Justin Turner is 5 for 8 with 2 home runs.

Merrill is tearing the cover off the ball with an OPS of nearly 1.100. Tatis has rejuvenated his career after his PED suspension and leads the majors in home runs and bWAR.

Cubs vs Padres Pick: San Diego Wins a Close One

Both pitchers are dealing, and neither has ever been this good before, so something eventually has to give. Since the game is in San Diego and the Padres are undefeated at home, they should bring home the victory.