Yankees vs Rays Pick: NY Hopes Fried Can Help Them Rebound From Awful Loss (Apr 20)

• Our Yankees vs Rays pick analyzes New York trying to rebound from its worst loss of the season
• Tampa Bay rallied for 4 runs in the 9th inning of Saturday’s game against the Bombers’ closer Devin Williams; they won in the 10th on a Jonathan Aranda walkoff homer
• The Yankees are still in 1st place in the AL East, and Tampa is in 5th
• The Rays send Ryan Pepiot to the mound; the Yankees counter with Max Fried

New York Needs Fried To Be an Ace

Yankees closer Devin Williams has been shaky in his first month in pinstripes, but generally managed to squeak out of trouble. On Saturday, however, his luck ran out, and Tampa scored 4 runs to tie the game at 8-8. They won in the 10th on Aranda’s home run off Yoendrys Gomez.

Fortunately for New York, they have their best starter, lefty Max Fried, on the mound for the final game of the series. Fried has been better than advertised and stepped right into Gerrit Cole’s shoes as the number one starter. He leads MLB in wins with 3, has a 1.88 ERA, has given up 23 hits and 5 earned runs in 24 innings, and struck out 28 while walking only 5.

Aaron Judge is batting nearly .400, has 7 homers, 25 RBIs, and 15 walks in 21 games. Anthony Volpe’s struggles continue, and his batting average has slipped below .200. Austin Wells is down to .190. Cory Bellinger is batting .175 with 1 home run.

Fried has had limited exposure to the Rays. The only Tampa batter with any hits against Fried is Yandy Diaz. He is 2 for 5, both singles.

Inconsistent Tampa Needs Some Momentum

The Rays’ win broke a 4-game losing streak. They have been inconsistent in 2025, but no team has taken charge in the AL East yet. Ryan Pepiot takes the mound for Tampa. He pitched reasonably well in his first 3 starts before a beating at the Red Sox’ hands in his last start. In that game, he gave up 9 hits and 6 earned runs in 6 innings.

Pepiot has pitched well against the Yankees, with only Judge recording a hit against him. It was a single.

Aranda’s walk-off added to the excellent season he’s having. He is batting .367 with a .435 on-base percentage and a 1.135 OPS. Junior Caminero has 5 home runs. Kameron Misner is hitting .360. Tampa’s catchers have been inept at the plate. Danny Jansen is hitting .133, and Ben Rortvedt is at .095.

Yankees vs Rays Pick: Fried Will Lead New York to a Relatively Easy Win

Fried has been too good so far in 2025. Pepiot has been decent enough to keep the Rays in 3 of the 4 games he’s started, but the Yankees will knock him around behind their new ace.