MLB 2025: Baltimore Orioles Over/Under For Wins

• The Baltimore Orioles open their season on March 27 against the Toronto Blue Jays
• Baltimore was 91-71 in 2024 and lost their Wild Card Series 2-0 to the Kansas City Royals
• They did little to improve over the winter and might have gotten worse
• Oddsmakers see them taking a step back from 2023-24

Baltimore Lost a Key Bat and Arm

When the Angelos family sold the Orioles to private equity billionaire David Rubinstein, the perception was that the years of penny-pinching were over and the club would spend big. However, that has not come to pass.

Slugging outfielder Anthony Santander was allowed to depart for the Blue Jays and ace pitcher Corbin Burnes to the Diamondbacks. There is a reasonable argument that Baltimore’s farm system is still packed with prospects and that it is a sound strategy not to commit the dollars and years to players about to turn 30.

Still, Santander’s 44 home runs and Burnes’s nearly 200 innings are hard to replace seamlessly.

The Orioles Acquired Veteran Pieces

To account for these losses, Baltimore signed outfielder Tyler O’Neill away from the Red Sox. O’Neill hit 31 home runs for Boston in 2024. Despite his bodybuilder physique and productivity when healthy, he is frequently injured.

Maybe the bodybuilder physique does more harm than good.

For the mound, they signed 41-year-old Charlie Morton. In recent days, they brought in the last remaining “name” free agent, righty Kyle Gibson.

Is this sufficient to make up for losing Burnes?

Morton made 30 starts for the Braves in 2024, but he had a 1.1 bWAR and was consistently mediocre.

Youngsters Will Determine Baltimore’s Fate

The Orioles’ foundation is still young with Adley Rutschman (27), Ryan Mountcastle (28), Jordan Westburg (26), Gunnar Henderson (23), Colton Cowser (25), Grayson Rodriguez (24), and Heston Kjerstad (26). Former first overall MLB Draft pick Jackson Holliday struggled as a rookie with a .189/.255/.311 slash line, but he is 21 and widely expected to be a star.

The Orioles Will Take a Step Back

Although the Orioles have a record of 192-132 in the past two seasons, they are 0-5 in the playoffs. Their rise is impressive, considering they were 52-110 in 2021. Despite that, losing two major contributors to free agency as they did with Santander and Burnes and not adequately replacing them will yield short-term pain if the youngsters and middling veterans they are relying on do not perform.

They will win fewer than 86.5 games.