MLB 2025: Cincinnati Reds Over/Under For Wins

• MLB oddsmakers have the 2025 Cincinnati Reds over/under wins at 78.5
• Cincinnati finished at 77-85 in 2024, so they are judged to have flatlined from last season
• The primary difference is hiring future Hall of Fame manager Terry Francona
• In the offseason, they acquired Gavin Lux, Brady Singer, and Jose Treviño

The Reds’ Big Acquisition Is the Manager

Terry Francona just can’t stay out of a big league dugout. Much like his yearlong sabbatical after leaving the Red Sox and joining the then-Indians and now Guardians, he took a year off after leaving Cleveland and stayed in Ohio to take over the Reds.

The value of the manager is largely diminished in today’s game with front offices exerting heavy (arguably excessive) influence on how games are run from the dugout. Francona is accustomed to working with the front office in pregame strategizing, but once the game starts, he’s managing the team.

Another key difference between Francona and Random Manager X is Francona’s expectations for spending and the team trying to win. He has sway in telling the front office how he views a player and what he thinks he needs to add to contend. Other managers with overbearing front offices hear the manager’s desires and respond, “Yeah? So?”

Francona’s teams maximize their potential.

They Also Boosted the Roster

Trading former NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India to the Royals was a difficult decision, but they felt they needed starting pitching and got it in Brady Singer. He combines with Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo for a solid top three.

They acquired Gavin Lux from the Dodgers and Jose Treviño from the Yankees to take over behind the plate. Cincinnati has several young, high-ceiling offensive players including Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand.

The NL Central is not particularly strong, so with their improvements, the Reds can contend for a playoff spot if all goes well.

Reds Over/Under Wins Will Be Higher Than 78.5

It’s conceivable that the NL Central can be had with a win total in the mid-80s. The Reds will likely need to be aggressive at the trade deadline to reach that level, but they are certainly better than 78.5 wins.