MLB 2025: Cleveland Guardians Over/Under For Wins

• The Guardians are the defending AL Central champs
• They were 92-69 in 2024 and lost to the Yankees in the ALCS
• In the winter, they traded away half of their starting infield and did little to improve on paper
• Oddsmakers think Cleveland will take a precipitous fall to around .500

The Guardians Shed Payroll After 2024

Although they won the AL Central and advanced to the ALCS, finances are a constant concern for the Guardians. To that end, they traded away first baseman Josh Naylor and second baseman Andrés Giménez to the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays, respectively. The return on the trades looks light and was done because both were due to make significantly more money in 2025.

To replace Naylor, they brought back old friend Carlos Santana. Young Gabriel Arias is atop the depth chart at second base. His career numbers are not impressive with a .212/.274/.350 slash and 14 home runs in 563 career plate appearances.

They still have superstar third baseman José Ramírez, a transcendent player who is going to end up in the Hall of Fame. In 2024, Ramirez was one home run away from a 40-40 home run/stolen bases season. He is signed reasonably through 2028.

Cleveland Walks a Thin Line

The Guadians’ success in 2024 was based on its superlative defense and excellent bullpen. Closer Emmanuel Clase had one of the best seasons for a closer in MLB history, posting a 0.61 ERA and saving 47 games. His dreadful performance in the ALCS was a significant factor in Cleveland’s series loss. An extended stumble in 2025 will make the Guardians’ road tougher.

In 2024, their outfield was objectively awful offensively, and they did nothing to improve. To make matters worse, trading away Josh Naylor removes 31 homers from their lineup. Santana still has pop and on-base skills, but he’s 39.

In their starting rotation, behind ace Tanner Bibee, they have myriad question marks with Gavin Williams, Ben Lively, and Logan Allen. They are waiting for former Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber to return from Tommy John surgery.

They need to hope Luis Ortiz, acquired from the Pirates, continues to build on the promise he showed as a starter in 2024 when he posted a 3.22 ERA in 15 starts, surrendering 63 hits in 86.2 innings. He had a horrific spring training.

Despite the Flaws, Cleveland Should Surpass 81.5 Wins

It’s easy to look at the Guardians, the lack of spending, and the players they lost and say they will win 10 fewer games than they did in 2024. It’s an understandable position, particularly when factoring in that it would be nearly impossible for the White Sox to be as bad as they were in 2024 (and Cleveland was only 8-5 against them).

Still, their front office is one of baseball’s brightest, and they maximize their talent annually. No matter how many stars they trade away, Hall of Fame managers like Terry Francona depart, or top executives like Mark Shapiro leave, they soldier on. They have won fewer than 81.5 games in a full season three times since 2013. They will go beyond that number again in 2025.