MLB 2025: Detroit Tigers Over/Under For Wins

• The Detroit Tigers made a surprising run to win a Wild Card in 2024 before losing to the Guardians in the ALDS
• They made light additions to the 2025 roster in Jack Flaherty, Gleyber Torres, Tommy Kahnle, and Manuel Margot
• Oddsmakers have them dropping slightly from their 86-76 record in 2024 with an over/under of 83.5 wins

The Tigers Had Conceded at the 2024 Trade Deadline

As the 2024 MLB trade deadline approached, the Tigers were five games below .500, 14 games behind the Guardians in the AL Central, and 7.5 games out of the last Wild Card spot in the American League.

Acknowledging objective reality, President of Baseball Operations Scott Harris cleared salary for the future trading veterans Carson Kelly, Mark Canha, Andrew Chafin, and Jack Flaherty. They released infielder Gio Urshela.

Then something strange happened: They started winning.

Led by AL Cy Young Award winner and pitching Triple Crown winner Tarik Skubal, Detroit went 34-19 in August and September to claim a Wild Card spot. They beat the Astros in two straight to advance to the ALDS against the Guardians before losing 3 games to 2.

They took a big step faster than they anticipated. The question now is whether they can take another leap to World Series contention.

There Is Plenty of Room for Improvement

With the Tigers’ moderate spending, their front office all but acknowledged that they are unsure if the three-month hot streak from 2024 (August through the first two rounds of the playoffs) is sustainable.

Flaherty pitched well for them in the first half of 2024 before being traded to the Dodgers. He was a key component to LA’s World Series win. He’s a solid mid-rotation piece. Torres is a flawed player who has pop and frequent mental lapses. Kahnle is a useful reliever.

These are incremental additions.

The Tigers’ 2025 fate will hinge on starting pitchers Casey Mize, Reese Olson, and Jackson Jobe and how they fare. Former first overall draft pick Spencer Torkelson must find some consistency. Their young bats Colt Keith, Riley Greene, and the currently injured Parker Meadows are also crucial to the team’s prospects.

Veteran infielder Javier Báez long ago passed the sunk cost phase. He batted .184 and had a -1.1 bWAR in 2024 before a hip injury ended his season. He batted .184 in spring training. At this point, he should not even be on the roster. But for the remaining $73 million on his contract, he wouldn’t be.

The Tigers’ Season Can Go Either Way

It is reasonable to expect the Tigers to take a step back from their hot streak late in 2024. However, they are young and talented enough to win more than 83.5 games. This is particularly true with a legitimate ace like Skubal anchoring their rotation.

They should surpass 83.5 wins.