MLB 2025: Houston Astros Over/Under For Wins

• The 2024 Astros won the AL West with an 88-73 record before losing in the ALDS to the Tigers 2 games to 0
• Houston lost 24 of their first 36 games, but rebounded for rookie manager Joe Espada
• They made dramatic changes for 2025, allowing star third baseman Alex Bregman to leave for the Red Sox and trading Kyle Tucker to the Cubs
• Oddsmakers have installed them as co-favorites in the AL West with the Rangers

Several Stars From the Past World Series Runs Are Gone

The Astros are transitioning from their World Series core to a new era. Bregman, Tucker, Justin Verlander and Ryan Pressly have all moved on. Over the winter, they brought in Christian Walker as a free agent from the Diamondbacks, and traded for Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith from the Cubs. They moved second base stalwart and likely Hall of Famer Jose Altuve to left field.

Smith has been particularly imprssive.

The Astros Are Trying to Stave Off an Inevitable Decline

Years of World Series contention and trading away prospects to maintain their lofty MLB position have an inevitable effect on minor league depth. Drafting near the bottom in every round year after year reduces the chance of getting impact talent.

That is where the Astros are. Trading Tucker got them the young basher Smith and 26-year-old Paredes. Yordan Alvarez, Yainer Diaz, Jeremy Peña, and Jake Meyers are still in their 20s.

Their starting rotation is anchored by Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, and Ronel Blanco. Lance McCullers Jr. will be back at some point as a reinforcement. Cristian Javier is expected to return from Tommy John surgery sometime in the second half. Valdez is quietly one of the game’s best starters.

Their bullpen remains solid, with Josh Hader closing and Bryan Abreu and Tayler Scott ahead of him.

The Astros Will Surpass 86.5 Wins

An understated reason why teams often fall below their early season projected win total is that they surrender at midseason during a subpar year, trade away their veterans, and essentially punt the season. The Astros, in their current state, will not do that.

It seems to be understood that they are trying to win now and will accept the consequences of that in the next few years. In addition, they are in the AL West, which has two objectively bad teams in the Angels and Athletics. That should keep them in contention and let them get beyond 86.5 wins.