MLB 2025: Kansas City Royals Over/Under For Wins

• The Kansas City Royals made the playoffs as a Wild Card in 2024 with 86 wins one year after winning 56 games
• They beat the Orioles in the Wild Card Series before losing to the Yankees in the ALDS
• Their young roster is largely the same in 2025 as it was in 2024, except for signing new closer Carlos Estevez and trading for second baseman Jonathan India
• Oddsmakers have them at over/under 82.5 wins

KC Improved by 30 Games From 2023 to 2024

The Royals’ 30-game improvement from 56-106 to 86-76 is the third biggest jump in MLB history. The record is 31, shared by the 2008 Rays and the 1993 Giants. Before the 2024 season, they added two veteran starting pitchers, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha.

Lugo rewarded their faith in him by finishing second in the American League Cy Young Award voting and winning a Gold Glove. He finished at 16-9 with 181 strikeouts and 177 hits allowed in 206.2 innings, posting a 3.00 ERA.

Wacha was 13-8 in 29 starts, allowing 154 hits in 166.2 innings. The two set the standard for the young starters behind them, particularly Cole Ragans, who was an All-Star and finished fourth in the CYA voting.

Bobby Witt Jr. has become one of the game’s biggest stars. The second overall pick in the 2019 draft, Witt had a 9.4 bWAR, batted .332, had 32 homers, 31 stolen bases, and 45 doubles. He was second in the Most Valuable Player voting and won a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger.

The Royals Are Trusting Their Young Players to Get Even Better

Instead of making dramatic moves and spending big money on stars, the Royals chose to make moderate additions with Estevez and India. To get India from the Reds, they traded away pitcher Brady Singer, one of their key starters in 2024. The former NL Rookie of the Year is a gritty player with power and speed.

Apart from team captain Salvador Perez, Hunter Renfroe, Lugo, Wacha, and Estevez, this is a very young team with the core under 28 years old. Perez is the unquestioned leader on and off the field and is quietly carving out a Hall of Fame career. They can run, steal bases, and play solid defense. The bullpen, now anchored by Estevez and backed up by Hunter Harvey and Lucas Erceg, is deep.

The Royals Should Maintain Their Mid-80s Win Level

Of course, the Royals’ 2024 season needs to be put in context with a mid-30s veteran Lugo having his career year and the team taking advantage of the woeful White Sox by winning 12 of their 13 meetings. But their youngsters have a lot of talent and room to get better. Now they have experience in a high-pressure pennant race and postseason.

Kansas City will again finish with a win total around the mid-80s, going beyond their projected 82.5 over/under.