MLB 2025: Miami Marlins Over/Under For Wins

• MLB oddsmakers have the Miami Marlins over/under wins at 62.5
• The Marlins went 62-100 in 2024 and are in a full-blown rebuild
• Over the past year, President of Baseball Ops Peter Bendix made substantive changes up and down the organization
• They are expected to trade star pitcher Sandy Alcantara at the deadline

Losing Is the Idea

Bendix came to the Marlins from the Rays. Therefore, it is no surprise that he’s running the team similarly to how the Rays evolved from annual punching bag to consistent contender, starting in 2006 when Stuart Sternberg and Andrew Friedman came aboard.

The Marlins made the playoffs as a Wild Card in 2023, but after that season, owner Bruce Sherman forced out GM Kim Ng to hire Bendix.

The objective is to build the Marlins in the Rays’ image. MLB might be better off lopping off the entire state of Florida from its rolls and moving the franchises.

Bendix had no reason to leave the Rays unless he got the power to strip the organization down to its bare bones and reboot. That’s what he’s doing.

They have some young talent on the roster, including infielder Otto Lopez, shortstop Xavier Edwards, and pitcher Max Meyer. But the fruits of the rebuild will not start trickling in until late next year. This is a long-term project.

The Marlins Cleared the Decks

Bendix sent away every player making money for prospects, salary relief, or both. At the 2024 trade deadline, he dealt away Tanner Scott, Bryan De La Cruz, Huascar Brazoban, Josh Bell, Jazz Chisholm, Trevor Rogers, and A.J. Puk. Over the winter, they mutually(?) parted ways with manager Skip Schumaker (2023’s NL Manager of the Year), then traded away Jake Burger and Jesus Luzardo.

Alcantara and Cal Quantrill are the only established veterans on the roster. Alcantara, the former NL Cy Young Award winner, is the prize who will accrue the most return in a trade if he’s healthy.

Marlins’ Over/Under Wins Will Fall Below 62.5

The idea of tanking is antiquated, especially since teams are no longer guaranteed the highest picks in the MLB Draft for doing so. The draft lottery took care of that. In addition, the Players Association frequently targets the Marlins because they do not spend what they are obligated to under the collective bargaining agreement.

This is a willfully bad team and will win fewer than 62.5 games again.