MLB 2025: Pittsburgh Pirates Over/Under For Wins

• MLB oddsmakers have the 2025 Pittsburgh Pirates over/under wins at 72.5
• In 2024, the Pirates somewhat overachieved, going 76-86
• They made light acquisitions over the winter, including Adam Frazier, Andrew Heaney, Tommy Pham, and Spencer Horwitz
• They have several young players with real star potential, Paul Skenes and Oneil Cruz among them

The Pirates’ Latest Rebuild Reaches Year 7

Apart from a brief 3-year run from 2013 to 2015 in which the Pirates made the playoffs and won 94, 88, and 98 games, 2018 was their only season above .500 since 1992. They’re an organization in perpetual rebuild, a long way from the glory days of the 1970s when they made the playoffs six times and won the 1979 World Series. They won three straight division titles under manager Jim Leyland and were led on the field by Barry Bonds from 1990 to 1992.

But mismanagement, financial constraints, and a reasonable assumption that ownership doesn’t care if they win or not have made them one of the most forgettable organizations in baseball. Contending teams regularly raid them for their stars.

They currently have several foundational pieces in Paul Skenes, Oneil Cruz, and Ke’Bryan Hayes. Will they spend to fill in around them? History says no.

Skenes, Cruz, Hayes, and a Bunch of Guys

How is a team expected to improve from 76-86 if they don’t bring in significant reinforcements? Hypothetically, a full season from the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year Skenes, who went 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA in 23 starts, striking out 170 in 133 innings, can be viewed as a step forward. However, he pitches once every five days and will be on an innings count in 2025. The best guess is about 140 innings, which makes a late-season shutdown likely.

The raw but exciting 26-year-old Cruz was moved to center field from shortstop. He steals bases, hits for power, and at 6’7″, he stands out on the field.

Hayes signed a long-term deal to stay in Pittsburgh through at least 2029. Still, the discounted deal ($70 million) makes him all the more attractive in a trade.

This is not to suggest that the Pirates don’t have some useful players. They do. Bryan Reynolds and Mitch Keller can certainly help contending teams. Tommy Pham and Andrew McCutchen provide veteran leadership. But until the team starts spending money or finding available players who fit into a concept as the Rays consistently do, nothing will change for the Pirates.

Pirates Over/Under Wins Will Be Less Than 72.5

What more is there to say about the Pirates? Even if they are playing reasonably well at midseason, they are likely to be sellers at the trade deadline, meaning their second half will result in a rapid decline to the bottom of the division if they aren’t there already.

They will not win more than 72 games.