Red Sox vs Guardians Pick: BoSox Houck Tries to Find His Form (Apr 25)

• In our Red Sox vs Guardians pick, we assess whether Boston’s struggling starter Tanner Houck can regain his form
• Cleveland sends Ben Lively to the mound
• Both clubs are in 2nd place in their respective divisions and have playoff aspirations

Boston Was Relying on Houck To Be an Ace

In 2024, righty Tanner Houck was a 3.5 bWAR starter for the Red Sox. He tossed 178.2 innings, gave up 156 hits, and struck out 154. He was an All-Star. For 2025, Boston thought they were getting a better version of Houck to anchor their rotation.

Instead, he has a -0.8 bWAR, a 7.66 ERA, and has allowed an unsightly 22 runs in 24.2 innings.

In fairness, he has pitched well in two of his last three starts, and his ERA was blown into the stratosphere by a beating at the hands of the Rays in which he surrendered 11 earned runs in 2.1 innings. In his last start against the White Sox, he pitched 6 innings of 2-run ball, striking out 7.

Houck has handled the Guardians in the past. Only Jose Ramirez has a home run against him, but he is 2 for 13 in his career. Steven Kwan is 2 for 7 with 2 singles.

Alex Bregman, Trevor Story, Willy Abreu, and Kristian Campbell are carrying Boston offensively. They are still waiting for Rafael Devers and Triston Casas, both batting under .200, to get going.

Lively Epitomizes the Guardians Finding Ways To Win

Every year, the Guardians make major changes to stay within a certain payroll, and every year, they fill in the gaps to stay competitive. They stick to the fundamentals with an excellent, diverse bullpen, a functional starting rotation, solid defense, and home runs.

Starter Ben Lively exemplifies how the Guardians work. He has a respectable 3.86 ERA in 5 starts. In his last three starts, he has thrown 16.1 innings and given up 4 runs on 13 hits. In two of those starts, he held the Pirates and White Sox scoreless.

Against the Red Sox, only Abreu has taken Lively deep. Jarren Duran is 2 for 8 with 2 doubles. Rob Refsnyder is 3 for 3 with a double.

Cleveland has struggling hitters. Kyle Manzardo is batting .219 despite his 7 homers. Bo Naylor is at .192. Santana is not hitting and it’s a lingering question as to how much longer the club can keep playing him at 1st base.

Red Sox vs Guardians Pick: Boston Will Keep it Within 1 Run

Although Houck has been undeniably shaky, if not outright terrible this season, he has pitched reasonably well in two of his last three starts. Underdog Boston is receiving 1.5 runs via the run line, so they should cover that even if they lose.