UFC Vegas 105 Picks for Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy and Other Fights on April 5

UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy, a.k.a. UFC Vegas 105, is the next event on the MMA calendar. UFC Apex is where this event will take place on Saturday, April 5, 2025.

In this post, we’ll preview the headliner – Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy – and share our picks for all other bouts on the fight card.

Emmett vs. Murphy Prediction: Bout with Fight of the Night Potential

Josh Emmett was a +225 underdog against Bryce Mitchell but shut the doubters up with a first-round knockout. It was a brutal KO, which left his opponent convulsing on the floor.

Now, at +220, he’s back in the same spot, with oddsmakers questioning his longevity at 40. His record stands at 19-4, with two of those four losses happening just before the win over Mitchell.

One of those happened to Yair Rodriguez in a fight for the interim featherweight title. The other one was against Ilia Topuria in a Fight of the Night bout.

His bounce-back win over Mitchell proved he’s still dangerous, and another highlight-reel KO could put him back in title contention. Such a thing, however, won’t be able to pull off. After all, his next opponent is still without a single loss.

Murphy is 15-0-1, with his only draw coming in his UFC debut. Critics argue he hasn’t faced elite competition, but wins over Dan Ige and Edson Barboza tell a different story.

His kickboxing was on full display against Barboza. We saw him land 220 significant strikes while absorbing just 79. Against Ige, he was knocked down early on in the fight, but fought back to a decision win, proving that he never backs down.

Murphy will likely out-strike Emmett in volume, but Emmett’s power might do more damage. That said, we expect this to be a very close fight, which will probably be decided after the final bell. But who will the judges score for? We think it’s going to be Emmett.

UFC Vegas 105 Picks for All Other Fights

• Pat Sabatini vs. Joanderson Brito – Joanderson Brito
• Cortavious Romious vs. Lee Chang-ho – Lee Chang-ho
• Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Martin Buday – Kennedy Nzechukwu
• Brad Tavares vs. Gerald Meerschaert – Brad Tavares
• Torrez Finney vs. Robert Valentin – Torrez Finney
• Ode’ Osbourne vs. Luis Gurule – Luis Gurule
• Davey Grant vs. Daniel Santos – Daniel Santos
• Diana Belbita vs. Dione Barbosa – Dione Barbosa
• Rhys McKee vs. Daniel Frunza – Daniel Frunza
• Victor Henry vs. Pedro Falcao – Victor Henry
• Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Talita Alencar – Talita Alencar

The UFC Vegas 105 main event is the only fight in which we’re backing the underdog (Josh Emmett). For all the other fights, we’re going with minus-money bets.

Priced at -700, Dione Barbosa is the biggest favorite on the fight card. However, our advice is that you stay away from this fight. Not only is there a limited value in this bet, but we’re also not 100% certain that Barbosa will win. Belbita did lose her last two fights, but she’s a fine fighter with plenty of weapons in her arsenal.

Another big favorite we wouldn’t bet on is Kennedy Nzechukwu. The reason is that his opponent, Martin Buday, is a tough guy who’s already defeated some pretty good opponents.

So, which UFC Vegas 105 picks do we consider the best? Brad Tavares looks like a very good bet, along with Torrez Finney and Daniel Santos.